Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Rock Solid Yield...

In my last post of the Rock Solid Yield category, I briefly introduced our newest upcoming Platinum level subscriber product. To further define the overall strategy I will compare and contrast our approach to some worthy suggestions by others writers.

Since the portfolio is just starting out then maybe the Motley Fool might have some thoughts on the what are Best Dividend Stocks for Beginners? The question they pose the roundtable of contributors and associates is:
I'm just starting, know little, have about $500, and want a solid stock with dividends as my first. What should I look for?

All the writers provide good suggestions and ideas but the best was provided by Dan Caplinger. For a small first time investor with very limited funds, then ETFs could provide the needed diversification and thus lower risks of losing the principle. The Motley Fool as well as the Rock Solid Yield (RSY) portfolio will be looking for those "solid stocks" to pay dividends for years to come and increase in value over that time. From the list of stock suggestions, it becomes obvious that they are not picking stocks strictly on dividend yield percentages as most are around or under 5% with only BP being at 9%. Motley Fool's advertising even promotes these ideas at 6 Secrets to Finding Dividend "Money Machines".
6 Secrets of Dividend Investing:
How You Can Earn Great Returns with Less Risk

Finding the best dividend stocks takes some legwork and careful analysis. But here's how you can find the best long-term winners:

1. Avoid the Highest Dividend Stocks -- You can't pick stocks by dividend yield alone. Above-normal dividends are often a red flag for a company in distress. Studies have consistently shown that you will earn higher long-term returns by avoiding risky stocks with overly high dividends.

All six points they make are important considerations in making a good dividend paying portfolio but "avoid" might not be the best describer of how to search out the best performing stocks. A better way may be to be even more cautious and careful about higher paying dividend stocks. The higher the dividend yield the greater the scrutiny should be. We all by now know the risks associated with BP stock from the oil spill, but the market may be underpricing it now as the uncertainty of the future of BP may be in question or at least that dividend payout. The risks from damages they are liable for can be calculated to in broad terms but the damage to reputation and customer base is uncertain. Also other stakeholders including the President and Congress could use moral persuasion and even laws to severely hamper their ability to make a profit {and distribute it} for their shareholders.

RSY portfolio will be looking for good value stocks that are rated as a Strongbuy or Buy {if the stock has some compelling reason to include it} and starting with an imaginary fund of $100,000. This should be large enough to diversify but we also want to make it scalable for even portfolios as small as $20,000. We will start with the "MyStockFinder" questionnaire to get a pool of good candidates. So let us look at how Motley Fool's choices as well as a few other suggestions for a dividend portfolio stack up based on Sabrient's rating system:

As it clearly shows, most would not even get into the pool of candidates except for maybe BP and GameStop (GME). They did not show up on the top 50 of RSY questionnaire as well as the two buy recommended stocks.

DuPont (DD) was a recommendation from Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap on May 12th. GME, MCK and TWC all came from Jack Hough from the article 3 Stocks Producing 10% Free Cash Yields. Which provided us with one strongbuy out of the two and both of the two buys out of our list of 10. Surely, strong free cash flow is as important as Hough addresses and maybe Motley Fool should have taken their advice a little more studiously as they stated:
3. Cash Is King -- Free cash flow (FCF) is the true health of the business. Find the companies that generate tons of it. Even in the worst of times, those flush with greenbacks have options. Firms with cash can buy back their shares to raise stock prices, make their debt payments, increase dividends, and buy other profitable businesses. That's why cash flow is the single most important factor that determines value in the marketplace.

What does this mean for the RSY portfolio?
While we can all succumb to the cocktail party stock picking advise, it is better to have systematic way of getting a list of candidates for the investment portfolio as well as selection of the individual stocks. None of the stocks listed above made it into to our RSY questionnaire results but also none were sell of strongsell and their rankings could easily change over time.

RSY will try to maintain less turnover of the portfolio. The exit strategy or portfolio reallocations will be partially based on changes to Sabrient's ratings on the individual holdings. For example if a stock changes from Strongbuy to Buy may warrant just less exposure but two drops to Hold may indicate a need to sell off the position-unless there is some compelling reason like a dividend payout coming up shortly.

Full disclosure: The author does not personally hold any of the stocks mentioned in this edition of Rock Solid Yield.

Disclaimer: This newsletter is published solely for informational purposes and is not to be construed as advice or a recommendation to specific individuals. Individuals should take into account their personal financial circumstances in acting on any rankings or stock selections provided by Sabrient. Sabrient makes no representations that the techniques used in its rankings or selections will result in or guarantee profits in trading. Trading involves risk, including possible loss of principal and other losses, and past performance is no indication of future results.

Roth Conversion: Savers Say 'No Thanks'

Income Investor [Fool.com: Income Stock Research]

Bear Rebuttal: The Market Is Pricier Than You Think

Misc. Links:
3 Stocks Producing 10% Free Cash Yields - Investing - Stocks - SmartMoney.com

Keep your distance from market volatility Chuck Jaffe - MarketWatch

Ignore the Panic, Focus on Value - MarketWatch

Roundtable: Best Dividend Stocks for Beginners

Oil Spill Ripples Reach...Norway? - MoneyShow.com
Sabrient Results_1276020132944DD

Why You Shouldn't Convert to a Roth IRA

Is a Roth IRA Safe From Taxes? - MarketWatch
Duplicate: Is a Roth IRA Safe From Taxes? - Personal Finance - Taxes - SmartMoney.com

Don't dismiss dividend-paying stocks Six myths about investing in stocks that pay

Portfolio rebalancing: How to do it right New study finds that using a time and target strategy may work best



Anonymous Anonymous said...

IS VERY GOOD..............................

10:48 PM, June 20, 2010  

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